Often in M&A, there is a concern that the buyer has overbid – especially when there is competition for the target and the risk of winner’s curse is heightened. In essence, if firms bid based on their “unbiased estimates” of the target’s value, the bids may be normally distributed around the true value and the winner is especially likely to have overbid (cursed). The task then, is to shade one’s bid to avoid overbidding. A standard exercise to demonstrate this phenomenon is to have the students bid on a jar of coins (which I describe as a restaurant chain). This is of special interest in a strategy course since the risk of being cursed is driven by the variance around the valuation (not the mean). Variance, it turns out, is driven by aspects of the target that are hard to value. These include strategic resources, human capital, complementarities, cross business synergies (e.g., layers of coins to reflect different target business units), or any other source of uncertainty. As such, even if the winner’s curse is covered in another course, these elements will be specific to a strategy course. Here are materials needed to run the exercise:

• Instruction sheet describing the bidding/valuation task (and to submit bids)
• Spreadsheet to record the results and show a simple estimation method
• PowerPoint slides to lead discussion
• 500ml jar with quarters, pennies, and nickels (as shown)

If you teach an online course, there is also a nice online simulation of this at GameTheory.net.

Contributed by Russ Coff

Click here to download this collection of exercises. This was assembled as part of an AoM session by Russ Coff and Don Hatfield

Contributed by Russ Coff